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"Under those conditions, I would expect we would continue with something like an $85 billion base of purchases ... that's a benchmark to start from," he told reporters after a speech in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The Fed in late 2008 slashed interest rates to near zero and has since bought $2.3 trillion in securities in an unprecedented drive to spur growth and revive the economy after the worst recession in decades. Yet the recovery, especially in jobs, has been slow, leading the central bank to say it expects to keep rates at rock bottom at least through mid 2015.
Wall Street economists have been trying to pinpoint exactly what conditions would constitute a "substantial" improvement in the outlook for the labor market, which the Fed last week suggested would halt the new money-printing program.
Addressing this question, Dudley said the Fed will watch all corners of the labor market, including payroll growth, the number of Americans who have given up the hunt for work, the employment-to-population-ratio and job-finding rates, as well as the broader measure of unemployment.
At year end, further purchases of Treasuries will depend on an assessment of costs and benefits and on labor improvement, said Dudley, who as head of the important New York regional Fed bank has a permanent vote on Fed policy.
Ultimately, the Fed is looking for a stronger recovery alongside stable prices, said Dudley. "When that finally materializes, I'll view it as consistent with the result we are trying to achieve, and not a reason to pull back our policies prematurely," he added.
INTERNAL POLICY RIFTS
Fed policymakers broadly agree that U.S. unemployment is much too high; most also agree that inflation, which has hovered near the Fed's 2 percent target, is well under control. But there continue to be deep rifts within the central bank over the best policy response.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a forceful opponent of further easing, said he would have dissented last week if he had a vote on the bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
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